Gerald E. Marsh » Global Warming

LESSONS FROM THE EARTH’S PAST: RESPONSE TO KIEHL

admin — Wed, 20 Apr 2011 21:57:53 +0000

The following was submitted to Science magazine in response to Jeffrey Kiel’s 14 January 2011 Persective “Lessons from Earth’s Past”:

Response to Kiehl

This letter was also posted on Climate Audit

Climate Change: The Sun’s Role

admin — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 23:21:30 +0000

Slides from a talk given at the Faculty Club of the University of California, Berkeley on 29 May 2010 for A Celebration of Hugh DeWitt’s Contributions on His Eightieth Birthday .

Climate Change: The Sun’s Role-DeWitt Symposium 29 May 2010-Viewgraphs

Climate Change, Energy, and National Security

admin — Fri, 21 May 2010 01:29:39 +0000

A talk given on 18 May 2010 at the 4th International Conference on Climate Change.

2010 International Conference on Climate Change

Interglacials, Milankovitch Cycles, and Carbon Dioxide

admin — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 22:27:35 +0000

The existing understanding of interglacial periods is that they are initiated by Milankovitch cycles enhanced by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. During interglacials, global temperature is also believed to be primarily controlled by carbon dioxide concentrations, modulated by internal processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent Work challenges the fundamental bases of these conceptions.

Interglacials and CO2-V2

Global Warming: A Blessing in Disguise

admin — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 00:11:31 +0000

USA Today Magazine (November 2009)

“The real tipping point for civilization is the beginning of another Ice Age–not a world a few degrees warmer.”

USA Today Mag-Nov09

Climate Change: Sources of Warming in the Late 20th Century

admin — Thu, 28 May 2009 16:38:03 +0000

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, volcanic and other aerosols, as well as the extraordinary solar activity of the late 20th century are discussed in the context of the warming since the mid-1970s. Much of that warming is found to be due to natural causes.

PDF

SEAWATER pH AND ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON DIOXIDE

admin — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 15:48:02 +0000

First chapter in Climate Change, Ed: Siddhartha P. Saikia (International Book Distributors 2010).

In 2005, the Royal Society published a report titled Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. The report’s principal conclusion—that average ocean pH could decrease by 0.5 units by 2100—is demonstrated here to be consistent with a linear extrapolation of very limited data. It is also shown that current understanding of ocean mixing, and of the relationship between pH and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, cannot justify such an extrapolation.

PDF

Climate Stability and Policy: A Synthesis

admin — Thu, 24 Jan 2008 20:15:29 +0000

During most of the Phanerozoic eon, which began about a half-billion years ago, there were few glacial intervals until the late Pliocene 2.75 million years ago. Beginning at that time, the Earth’s climate entered a period of instability with the onset of cyclical ice ages. At first these had a 41,000 year cycle, and about 1 million years ago the period lengthened to 100,000 years, which has continued to the present. Over this period of instability the climate has been extraordinarily sensitive to small forcings, whether due to Milankovitch cycles, solar variations, aerosols, or albedo variations driven by cosmic rays. The current interglacial has lasted for some ten thousand years—about the duration of past interglacials—and serious policy considerations arise as it nears its likely end. It is extremely unlikely that the current rise in carbon dioxide concentration—some 30% since 1750, and projected further increase over the next few decades—will significantly postpone the next glaciation.

Climate Stability and Policy: A Synthesis (PDF)

A shorter version appeared in Energy &Environment VOLUME 22 No. 8 2011 (PDF)

A related Op-Ed: THE COMING OF A NEW ICE AGE (PDF)

Goracle Gushings on Faith-Based Science

admin — Sat, 12 Jan 2008 20:46:41 +0000

USA Today Magazine (January 2008) Goracle PDF

“We are about to waste an enormous amount of money and effort on carbon mitigation without lowering CO2 emissions one whit. The Goracle and his fellow travelers will carry the day.”

AL GORE won an Academy Award for his skillfully done film, “An Inconvenient Truth.” It was well-deserved. Had he given as good a performance during his campaign for president, he would have won in a landslide. As environmental drama, it only can be compared with Michael Crichton’s novel, State of Fear. Both have elements of scientific and political fact, and both are excellent fiction.

Climate Change: The Sun’s Role

admin — Wed, 27 Jun 2007 19:40:21 +0000

The sun’s role in the earth’s recent warming remains controversial even though there is a good deal of evidence to support the thesis that solar variations are a very significant factor in driving climate change both currently and in the past. This précis lays out the background and data needed to understand the basic scientific argument behind the contention that variations in solar output have a significant impact on current changes in climate. It also offers a simple, phenomenological approach for estimating the actual—as opposed to model dependent—magnitude of the sun’s influence on climate.

(arXiv: physics.ao-ph 0706.3621)